Extending the Range of Milankovic Cycles and Resulting Global Temperature Variations to Shorter Periods (1–100 Year Range)
نویسندگان
چکیده
The Earth’s revolution is modified by changes in inclination of its rotation axis. Its trajectory not closed and the equinoxes drift. Changes polar motion are coupled through Liouville–Euler equations. Milankovi? (1920) argued that shortest precession period solstices 20,700 years: summer solstice one hemisphere takes place alternately every 11,000 year at perihelion aphelion. assumed planetary distances to Sun solar ephemerids constant. There now observations allow drop these assumptions. We have submitted time series for pole rotation, global mean surface temperature ephemeris iterative Singular Spectrum Analysis. iSSA extracts from each a trend 1 60 component. Both apparent drift Earth around exhibit strong oscillation. monitor elliptical orbit using positions as function Sun–Earth distance. “fixed dates” actually Comparing evolution winter first component (trend) allows recognize some common features. A basic equation Milankovic links derivative heat received given location on insolation, known functions coordinates, declination hour angle, with an inverse square dependence translated distance into geometrical insolation theory Milankovi?. Shifting 15 years respect temperature, exactly quadrature time, puts two curves quasi-exact superimposition. probability chance coincidence appears very low. Correlation does imply causality when there no accompanying model. Here, Milankovic’s can be considered model widely accepted. This paper identifies case agreement between mathematical formulation, which element could caused It extends range cycles resulting variations shorter periods (1–100 range), major role 60-year oscillation).
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geosciences
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2076-3263']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences12120448